2011 is coming to an an end.
As I peer into the mirror and reflect on the changes on web development over the last few years, a couple of things are clear.
1. AJAX, Flash and HTML5
AJAX is here to stay despite adding layers on top of the system. UX designers love it as it give them more options and enhanced user experience despite the added cost and complexity in maintaining it.
With the popularity of AJAX (or javascript libraries like JQuery, YUI), and its ability to provide enhanced experience, we know that the demise of Flash is just a matter of time.
Flash adoption will drop drastically over the next 3 years aided by the growing adoption of Javascript librairies and a shift in ensuring content works in the iPad of which Flash is nothing but a taboo.
HTML5 adoption will grow with more the web becoming more application based. Content will learn to live within applications.
2. Database
From relational to object database and now NoSQL database like MongoDB, CouchDB or Cassandra.
The divergence has taken years and the market for different database technology is still growing. Oracle has held on to its lead in entreprise database with its market share slowly being eroded by open source database like MySQL and PostgreSQL.
The famed object/relational database war back in the late 90 and early 2000s has seen Oracle consolidating its position in the database market when the dot com bubble and subsequent crash sees Illustra being acquired by Informix and later IBM acquiring Informix.
However, this time the competitors are different. While there are commercial entity behind open source database like MongoDB, CouchDB etc, the companies are not positioning themselves against Oracle.
They are addressing new market needs, in the areas of creating scalable web infrastructure, and mobile devices. The performance gains in the NoSQL movement comes with sacrificing some features like transaction handling commonly found in relational database like Oracle and PostgreSQL.
And if history repeats itself, we can clearly see how everytime a shift in Internet leads to new technology becoming mainstream.
With the Internet, MySQL becomes the forerunner for many projects.
Likewise, new startups are beginning to wise up to the limitations in commercial database and MySQL.
Needless to say, NoSQL will continue to gain adoption. And at some point in time, the entities behind it will become an acquisition target.
I will encourage all developers to look into the NoSQL movement and think through what are its implication? What opportunities does it present when it comes to adopting it for your next project or business?
3. Node.js
This one is for the web developer (or developers familiar with Javascript).
Just as AJAX provided lots of growth for the designer, Node.js will provide a huge opportunity for web developer and architects. Primarily designed to solve asynchronous issues, Node.js brings Event I/O to Javascript (just like creating AJAX effects on Javascript).
There’s ample opportunities to think through what Node.js can do. In fact, Yahoo UI library is now considering formalizing and making Node.js a first class member.
All these points towards how developing web applications have become more complicated. More technologies are involved. More layers.